Expert: Hizbullah unlikely to attack

By David Rudge, Jerusalem Post, 13.6.00

HAIFA (June 13) - Hizbullah is unlikely to initiate an unprovoked attack on Israel in the immediate future, according to Dr. Magnus Ranstorp, recognized as the West's leading expert on the organization.

Ranstorp, who has written a book on Hizbullah and has interviewed several of its leaders, believes it would not be in the interests of the organization, certainly not following the death of Syrian president Hafez Assad.

"I do not see Hizbullah engaging in any overt hostilities against Israel in view of the uncertainty at the moment over the situation in Syria and because it would not wish to disrupt the transition of power to Bashar Assad," he said.

Ranstorp noted that Syrian patronage had been of great importance to Hizbullah, quite apart from the fact that all arms and equipment sent by Iran went via Damascus.

Hizbullah commanders were generally given a free hand to conduct operations against the IDF and the SLA, but large-scale offensives and particularly Katyusha attacks were not carried out without prior consultation with Syria, he said.

Relations between Syria and Hizbullah are not entirely symbiotic and there have been moments of tension in the past, including one incident in which a Katyusha was fired into Syrian territory.

"The links between Hizbullah and Syria could be described as a mixture of subservience and independence, especially remembering that Hizbullah is funded and guided by Iran, which has instructed and trained the organization both in its military activities and more especially in winning public support on the social, welfare, and political levels," said Ranstorp.

"Nevertheless, Hizbullah is aware of the need for stability at the moment and not to do anything that could endanger the transition of power in Damascus and thereby upset its own relations with Syria. Furthermore, it would not be in Hizbullah's own interests to provoke the kind of violence that would detract from the gains it has achieved because of Israel's withdrawal from south Lebanon."

He did not, however, rule out the possibility of some sporadic incidents along the border by Palestinian rejectionist organizations, which might be feeling threatened because of Assad's death. Hizbullah might give covert support or encouragement to these groups, while publicly distancing itself from their activities, said Ranstorp.

"A severe retaliation by Israel, perhaps to satisfy local public opinion, to any relatively minor cross-border incidents would, in my opinion, be counterproductive as far as Israel is concerned," he said. "This would give Hizbullah the excuse it is looking for not to disarm and disband its military wing."

Ranstorp, from Sweden, is a senior lecturer in international relations at St. Andrews University in Scotland and deputy director of the center based there for studying terrorism and political violence. He is visiting Haifa University as a guest of the political science department for discussions with colleagues regarding international terrorism.