Redeployment: Fewer outposts, fewer soldiers

By Amos Harel, Ha’aretz, 1.6.00

The demolition of the western part of the Tziporen outpost on Monday represents an important turning point in the Israel Defense Force's adjustment to the new situation along the northern border. Just a few weeks ago, the army was still claiming that moving the outpost was not possible, that it would critically injure the defenses of Kibbutz Manara and Kibbutz Misgav Am, and that the cost of relocating it (tens of millions of shekels) "was insane." Nevertheless, Tziporen was evacuated and by the end of this week, the last few border adjustments should be completed, including the relocation of the Rosh Hanikra border post. All of this is being done in the hope that the United Nations will confirm that Israel has complied in full with the terms of Security Council Resolution 425.The relative quiet on the northern border since the withdrawal is enabling the rapid completion of work along the border. In the weeks prior to the withdrawal, this work was frequently interrupted by shelling on the outposts, but now it is proceeding unhindered. The IDF hopes to finish erecting the new border fence along a 40-kilometer stretch by the end of July, although some tasks will, it acknowledges, will only be completed around December. Meanwhile, defenses will be based on an addition of troops. Thus, for example, two existing observation posts will be responsible for a sector where the construction of an observation post is dragging on. However, the most significant change has to do with the defense concept along the new line. "It won't be a Maginot line," a senior officer said this week. On the contrary, the number of outposts along the border dropped from 25 before the withdrawal to 15. The new concept will be based on a "low profile" - i.e., without a massive presence along the border. The fence outposts will mostly consist of observation and intelligence installations where small forces are stationed, primarily for local protection.

Emphasis will be placed on electronic early warning systems, with most of the forces concentrated in rear camps that are not in the line of sight of the fence (and will therefore not be vulnerable to flat trajectory fire from Lebanon). "No more routine security measures that make endless slow sweeps along the fence," IDF officials explain.

This method was effectively implemented last year along part of the fence, and now it is necessary to implement it in the whole sector. The Northern Command is already drilling the various forces, but most likely more time will be needed before the new procedures are ingrained.

Another problem relates to the new location of anti-aircraft forces that are meant, for example, to protect against the threat of hang glider-launched attacks. The new deployment may hinder their defensive capabilities. The directives given to the forces posted there were tightened up during the last week: opening fire is permitted only against whoever is firing at Israeli territory or is trying to cross the border.

The Har Dov sector, which has been dormant for the last few years, may become a major source of friction due to Israel's refusal to pull back from the Shaba'a Farm. From now on, Golani and paratroop forces will alternate postings there and travel in armored vehicles. In the event of an escalation, Israel's response will be based on the air force. For now, the force - with a demonstrable lack of willingness - is adapting to the idea that no flight, be it operational or intelligence, will cross the Lebanese border. Former Air Force Commander Major General (res.) Avihu Bin Nun claimed that the situation is not as bad as it seems. "We got used to not flying over Jordan and Egypt, too," he said.

In the face of the Israeli deployment, Hezbollah is maintaining relative quiet. Intelligence officials estimate that it is a temporary lull. The organization is still busy collecting the political dividends of the withdrawal and deployment of its men in key positions in the villages of the South. The intelligence sources noted that the early withdrawal surprised Hezbollah and therefore, it did not manage to tag along after the IDF as it had planned; hang glider attacks and car bombs that had been prepared did not materialize. It is possible that the organization is still preparing for post-withdrawal operations.

Most officers in the IDF Northern Command and Intelligence Corps are convinced Hezbollah will continue fighting, possibly on a smaller scale initially and under the auspices of Palestinian organizations. Last Thursday, the commander of the Galilee Detachment, Brigadier General Moshe Kaplinski, predicted that "soon they'll start testing us along the fence." The predictions came true the next day and the stone- and bottle-throwing incidents at the Fatma Gate lasted three days. The IDF deployed forces from the Egoz Unit to confront the protesters and even distributed riot dispersal equipment to the soldiers.

The fence clashes stopped following the intervention of the Lebanese gendarmes and UNIFIL forces. However, from the fence the potential does exist for the kinds of incidents perpetrated in the past along the Jordanian border by a "crazy legionnaire." "Just one rotating crazy soldier or an impostor would be enough to create an uproar here," says a senior officer. "Let's say he fires at a routine patrol and the soldiers return fire that injures a little girl on the other side. Within a few minutes, we'll have an international incident."

The withdrawal, referred to as "Operation Forbearance," was in the end a project of the Northern Command and Chief of Staff Shaul Mofaz. A group of Golani veterans in the Northern Command, led by Major General Gaby Ashkenazy, was not eager to include other elements in the plans. These officers are now being praised for taking out the soldiers "without a scratch," but the general staff and other commands are voicing a fair amount of criticism of how the withdrawal was carried out.

While officers in the Northern Command are still talking about an "operation that will be taught in all military colleges," their colleagues in other commands are grumbling about "chaos," "a fiasco for the South Lebanese Army" and a sense that Prime Minister Ehud Barak "bent" the IDF throughout the entire process. As expected, the whole matter has a lot to do with a fight over who gets credit.

Commentators' praise for divisio

IDF awaits UNIFIL reinforcements

The anticipated UN announcement confirming that Israel has complied with the terms of Security Council Resolution 425 will pave the way for an expansion of the UNIFIL force. The present force has already begun deploying its men in South Lebanon. The IDF estimates that the expanded force will number between 4,000-4,500 soldiers and will apparently arrive in a few weeks. Today the UNIFIL force numbers around 2,400 soldiers, who are divided into battalions from six countries: Fiji, Nepal, Ghana, Ireland, Finland and India.

One question yet to be clarified is that of UNIFIL's mandate. Israel would prefer it to be changed from a "peace-keeping force" to a "peace-enforcement force," which would enable it to also protect residents of the South. At the moment, the chances of that happening appear to be slim. commanders in the North occasionally displeased their superiors; and a "misunderstanding" in the chief of staff's office prevented Ashkenazy from being interviewed on television over the weekend