IDF completing first phase of pullout plan
Amos Harel, Haaretz, 17.5.00

Going about its business quietly, under the very noses of the news media, the army is close to completing the first phase of its withdrawal plan from the security zone in south Lebanon. With media glare diverted to coalition crises, the Abu Dis debate and bloodshed in the territories, IDF forces pulled out of two central strongholds deep in the zone within two days, handing them over to the South Lebanon Army.

Between Sunday night and Monday morning the Taibeh outpost on the central front was evacuated. Most of the equipment, including a naval radar station, had already been removed, and only 10 soldiers of the IDF's Nahal brigade remained, with a company commander. In a brief ceremony from which reporters were pointedly excluded, an IDF colonel and an SLA counterpart led troops in saluting the flag of Israel, which was lowered and folded, and then the flag of Lebanon, hoisted to fly in its place. After midnight the IDF convoy left Rotem, headed back to Israel.

The common denominator between the two evacuated outposts is the difficulty in holding them. Both are relatively far from the mass of IDF positions. The path to Rotem is vulnerable to terrorist attacks. Officials had considered evacuating Rotem in the past, but acceded to military opposition, primarily from the navy. Indeed, former prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu considered evacuating Rotem towards the end of his term, in the light of IDF casualties prior to the May elections last year, but in the end no order was given.

Taibeh is also a problematic location. There were those at Northern Command who recommended it be evacuated long ago.

The outposts were handed over to battalions seen as among the strongest units in the SLA, units which could exist as regional militias after the SLA's expected breakup with the IDF withdrawal. SLA men are now taking over the defense of their homes, in the full meaning of the term; most live in villages near the two outposts.

Nonetheless, the changes in deployment over recent days should not be seen as the significant phase of the pullout. The IDF is doing what withdrawing armies tend to do: shortening its lines of deployment ahead of the main push. As such, it reduces the number of its distant units, which require more complex cover at the time of withdrawal.

The timetable for the withdrawal has not been moved up, as yet. It appears that Prime Minister Ehud Barak still hopes to complete it close to the original target date, in early July. Nevertheless, escalation in the field could bring about a change in the decision. Meanwhile, IDF forces are dealing with moving the border fence outposts rearward, to conform to the international border. It is also possible that one of the distant outposts will soon be be evacuated.

In this way, the IDF reduces the number of targets for Hezbollah operations. Fewer soldiers are now posted in south Lebanon and movement outside the outposts is slight. Only after the cabinet gives the order will the next phase begin, the last in the withdrawal- evacuation of the main outpost blocs. The Taibeh and Rotem experience shows that it can be completed in a relatively short time.

There's still no definite answer who will take over the abandoned outposts - the SLA, UNIFIL, the Lebanese Army, or some international force. In any case, unlike the past few days, there's no certainty that the withdrawal will continue under conditions of such relative calm.