By David
Rudge, Jerusalem
Post. 11.6.00
HAIFA (June 11) - Israel's borders with Lebanon and Syria are unlikely
to be turned into battlegrounds in the immediate aftermath of the death of
Syrian President Hafez Assad, according to Prof. Amatzia Baram.
"I would expect the northern borders to remain relatively quiet for
the next few months until the situation in Damascus resolves itself," said
Baram, director of Haifa University's Jewish-Arab Center.
Nevertheless, he said the possibility of turmoil could not be ruled out
in the event of a power struggle in Syria.
"It is conceivable that contenders for the throne will try to outdo
each other in terms of demonstrating their Syrian and Pan-Arab patriotism and
in such circumstances they would undoubtedly try to use Israel as the scapegoat
around which to unify their respective supporters," said Baram.
"Nevertheless, I believe this is a more remote possibility and that
the more logical trend of events is likely to be a period of consolidation of
the chosen leader and all the signs are that this will be Assad's son Bashar.
"If Bashar proves to be stronger than he appears on paper or
receives the backing of the Alawite elite in the absence of what they perceive
as any more suitable candidate, then we could - after a period of several
months [or] even up to a year - see a resumption of the Israel-Syria peace
talks.
"Bashar Assad was not responsible for losing the Golan Heights and
therefore he would be in a better position, perhaps, to accept the peace terms
that have been offered by Prime Minister Ehud Barak, more so than his father
was," Baram added.
Baram, who recently concluded a two-year sabbatical in Washington where
he was in contact with senior Clinton administration officials, said Bashar and
the Alawite community had more to lose than gain by fanning the flames of war
in Lebanon.
"The Syrians had already shown signs that they were ready to resume
the peace talks after having realized that a mistake had been made during the
recent summit meeting in Geneva with President Clinton," said Baram.
"This is not going to move forward now, at least not for the next
few months, until the political situation in Damascus stabilizes.
"There are going to be some power struggles behind the scenes, and
in this respect I suspect that the current chief of staff of the Syrian Army
and head of military intelligence Gen. Ali Asslan will play a prominent role as
the power behind the throne.
"As it seems now, he is most likely to throw his weight behind
Bashar Assad because he is as aware as anyone that the Alawite community, which
is a minority in Syria, cannot afford to show any cracks in its ranks."
Baram maintained that the Alawite leaders are also acutely aware of the
need to show unity and continuity to maintain their power base in Syria against
the ever-present threat of the Moslem Brotherhood, and to retain control over
neighboring Lebanon.
"The situation is very delicate at the moment in Syria, and of
course in Lebanon, following the IDF's withdrawal from the south, but I don't
really see anyone really wanting to cause any major trouble because this would
be counterproductive to the Alawite elite and its community in general, as well
as to Lebanon," he said.
"I do not see Hizbullah trying to create disturbances because it is
as dependent on Syria's goodwill as it is on Iran's ideological and financial
support.
"It is also unlikely that
Syria, as the main power broker in Lebanon, will countenance activities against
Israel now by Palestinian rejectionist forces because of the response this
would engender from Israel and from the international community, and the
additional problems it would cause over the succession in Syria," he
added.