As others see us?
Ten days after Israel's withdrawal from Lebanon, there is still a
question hovering in the air: How does the Arab world perceive this development
and what will its implications be for the future?.If I were, for example,
Bashar Assad, I would write the following to the president of Syria, Hafez
Assad: "Dear Daddy, Did you notice how Barak (you know, his name in Hebrew
means "lightning") left Lebanon within a flash, in the course of a
single night? Did you notice how he conceded Abu Dis despite the opposition
voiced by the members of his own cabinet and how he pulled out the troops
despite the opposition voiced by the top brass? Now here's a guy with guts and
he is capable of giving us back the Golan Heights just by snapping his fingers.
"Did we really act wisely when we put a stop to the peace talks
over a hundred meters of beachfront on the Sea of Galilee? Could we have made a
mistake when we passed up the opportunity of dealing with the one leader who is
willing and able to give us what we want?"
If I were Hafez Assad, here is how I would answer my son: "Thank
God you are my son whom I cherish and not some general whom I would have shot
for having said less serious things than what you have written me. When will
you finally understand that, while peace is very important for Israel, it is
only of interest to us because it can serve as a springboard that can enable us
to make a breakthrough with America. We need a lot of cold, hard cash and we
also need Washington's recognition of our rights to Lebanon. Clinton is already
a lame-duck president and, in any case, he is a hostage of the Zionists. It
would be more profitable for us to bet on the next U.S. president.
"Don't get all hot under the collar because of a few stupid threats
issued by Barak and Levy. Both of them have big mouths but they're scared stiff
of going to war against us. Israel just isn't built for that kind of thing any
more. All you need is to have one Scud missile land close to Tel Aviv and then
you'll see a mass exodus of Israelis to overseas destinations. This is the
third time that Israel has made a withdrawal right down to the last millimeter
and, in Lebanon's case, all this was carried out without a peace treaty. If we
just stay patient, we will reach the shores of the Sea of Galilee, with the
help of Allah!"
If I were the head of Syrian military intelligence, this is what I would
report to the Ba'ath party's defense and security committee: "A. The
withdrawal once again backs up our long-standing assessment that Israel's
modern army is simply no match for a few hundred guerrilla fighters. Barak's
government is close to a total collapse and, in our opinion, he is not in a
position to cede either the Golan Heights or the territory of occupied
Palestine in the context of negotiations. Thus, it can be concluded that the
option of wearing down our enemy through indirect terrorist operations will
bring that enemy to the negotiating table where we will dictate the terms. B.
Israel is no threat to Syria's survival. On the other hand, we should closely
monitor the activities of Nasrallah, who has shown himself to be a charismatic
political and military leader who is threatening to incite the Shi'ites in our
country against our own regime."
If I were the head of the Central Intelligence Agency, here is what I
would be reporting to President Bill Clinton: "Regarding your question as
to how the Arab world perceives Israel's withdrawal from Lebanon, the answer is
a dual one: On the one hand, the Arabs are amazed at Barak's willingness and
ability to give up territory. On the other hand, they might interpret the chaos
that accompanied the withdrawal as a sign of weakness. Thus, there might be
some elements who will want to launch the kind of war that will bring Israel to
its knees. Bottom line: Expect Arafat to get really mean and tough because he
will find it hard to be the only Arab leader on the block who has not managed
to force Israel to give up all the territory it took from him."
If I were Nasrallah, here is what I would write to Yasser Arafat:
"In the name of Allah, who is all-powerful and all-merciful, I thank you
for your words of congratulation. And I want to thank you. When you fled
Lebanon, you trapped Israel there and you enabled us to rise up out of nowhere
to become the only Arab force on the face of the earth that has managed to
banish Israel from territory it has captured. Nonetheless, I must admit that I
was mystified by what you said on television, namely, that we were not the ones
who kicked Israel out but rather that the Zionist state faithfully obeyed a
United Nations Security Council resolution. If Israel is so willing to comply
with UN decisions, why is most of your territory still in its hands?
"Rabin's statement that the 'Arabs will never get anywhere through
the use of violence' is just a lot of nonsense. The Intifada has restored you
to your homeland and the determination of our brave soldiers has brought them
to the international boundary - right up to the last millimeter. Don't let
their big-mouth talk scare you. The only language they understand is the
language of force."
If I were Arafat, here is what I would write in my diary: "Dear
diary, You are a witness that I have done a lot of painful soul-searching.
Should I keep my cool and play the part of a pragmatic leader who is willing to
make compromises and who is respected by other world leaders? Or should I give
in to my generals who are claiming that a nation must be born in blood and
fire? The Israeli withdrawal up to the very last millimeter in Lebanon makes my
stomach queasy: Instead of conveying the image of a leader who makes
compromises, why don't I just make life for the Israelis sheer hell on earth
until they pull back to the 1967 lines? What can they possibly do against us?
Drop the atom bomb on us?"
If I were Bill Clinton after the Portugese summit and after reading the
transcripts of the above reports, I would light up a cigar and I would let out
the following desperate cry: "Monica, Monica, where are you?