Nothing like spending the war in Beirut

Zvi Bar'el, Ha’aretz, 19.2.03

The Web site of the Intercontinental Hotel chain's confirmed my reservations for rooms at the Beirut Intercontinental, half a kilometer from the city center and 45 kilometers from popular tourists sites. A standard room for smokers, with a king-size bed costs $120 plus 10 percent taxes and tips per couple per night, including a continental breakfast buffet. A special for a five-night stay costs less per night.

It is a pity I will not be able to go to Beirut this year, even though the ski season is in full swing and the snow that fell in the past few days makes for optimum conditions. The quick confirmation of my hotel reservation refutes claims by Lebanese Tourism Minister Karam Karam, who publicly announced that the hotels in Lebanon are fully booked and that many tourists who come this month will have to seek accommodation in private homes.

A restaurant in Lebanon, last week. This month over 100,000

tourists will visit the country - 50% more than in all of 2002.

Photo:AP

Announcements by a few hotel managers, who told the press that people were not deterred by a requirement to reserve five-day stays in advance, were also proved false. I found no such requirement.

The figures, however, are astounding. This month over 100,000 tourists will visit Lebanon, and according to Karam this is about 50 percent more than visited Lebanon throughout 2002. Lebanon is harvesting the first fruits of the impending war against Iraq. Most of the tourists are coming from Kuwait, Saudi Arabia and Qatar, while many are from Jordan and Syria and even from Egypt and Europe.

Lebanon is considered the safest place in the Middle East to spend the war and many tourists from the Gulf states who came for the Eid al-Adha feast of the sacrifice have decided to extend their vacations until the end of the month in the hope that by then the war will be over and have said that if it drags on they will extend their vacations by another month.

Flights too expensive

The ones who are dissatisfied with this situation are actually the Lebanese living abroad. In a letter sent by representatives of the Lebanese diaspora to the Lebanese government, they ask why a flight from Paris to Beirut should cost so much - almost twice that of a flight to Damascus. "Is Damascus so far from Beirut?" "How is it that the Syrian government understands the need to make it easier for its overseas citizens while the Lebanese government is doing everything to make it more difficult?"

The air fare from Paris to Lebanon is $800, while a ticket from Paris to Damascus costs just $450 and the diaspora is accusing the Lebanese airline of signing an contract with Air France that allows the French company to set the prices to Lebanon. "How can Lebanese visit their families for a festival if the price for a family could be as much as $5,000?"

The residents of Southern Lebanon are also complaining that this month's marketing and sales festival excluded them almost completely. In Nabatieh there were only a few tourists and the local residents favored purchases from temporary roadside stands over a trip to the organized market, at which products cost more. Even discounts of 40-70 percent did not help much.

Southern Lebanon is a region whose economy is different from that of the rest of the country. There are few sources of income and the rehabilitation that began after the withdrawal of the Israel Defense Forces from Lebanon is slow and is not attracting foreign investments.

"No new factories have been built in the South, there are no infrastructure projects and government representatives are seldom seen in this area," writes a Lebanese journalist.

Thus, while Arab and European tourists are being interviewed in the North of the country, singing the country's praises and the worst worry last week concerned a government order to close down 47 bars that were operating without a license, the South is suspicious.

Lebanese expectations of what will happen in the south of the country as a result of a war in Iraq are apparently a reflection of suspicions in Israel. "[Prime Minister Ariel] Sharon will surely want to take advantage of the situation and attack Hezbollah positions and even reinvade Lebanon," says one Lebanese analyst.

This is the accepted view that has forced the Lebanese government to send more troops to the Southern border and set up cement barricades to prevent the expulsion of the Palestinians from the territories northward, which the Lebanese figure is Israel's goal. The Lebanese army has also stepped up its patrols in the South and reinforced the security points at the entry to the Palestinian refugee camps.

Lebanese sources say Syria has told the Palestinians in Lebanon and Hezbollah to keep the Southern border quiet so as not to provide Israel with any reason to operate in Lebanon.

Hezbollah perplexed

Hezbollah, for its part, is vague regarding the war. The organization's secretary general, Sheikh Hassan Nasrallah, announced his own initiative for a solution to the crisis in Iraq about 10 days ago. His initiative focuses on the establishment of a national Iraqi council that would include all the parties, including people from the exiled opposition, with the aim of reaching national conciliation inside Iraq. This council would be followed by free elections, which would result in an Iraqi national government that will initiate conciliation with the Arab states.

Beyond the difficulty of implementing this initiative and the outright rejection with which it was met by members of the Iraqi opposition, Lebanese commentators are presenting this initiative as an indication of Hezbollah's confusion.

"The Hezbollah initiative stands in total contradiction to the Iranian position," says one Lebanese commentator. "Iran does not want a unity government in Iraq and is interested in Saddam Hussein's downfall. Iran presented its position as `active neutrality,' meaning non-involvement in Iraq and the practical delivery of its interests to the United States. Furthermore, Iran is cooperating with the U.S. on the Iraqi issue and is maintaining a dialogue with the Americans. The Hezbollah proposal, in theory, runs counter to this position - in theory because it has no chance of being accepted, but as a declaration it signals a dispute between Iran and the organization."

Another matter concerns relations between Hezbollah and the Lebanese government. "Why should Hezbollah suddenly come out with such an initiative?" asks the commentator. "It cries a challenge to the Lebanese government, which did not come out with its own initiative. True, there is criticism that there were not enough political discussions among members of the parliament and it looks as if this war does not concern it, but has Hezbollah become an alternative to the government?"

The commentator noted that Hezbollah's position also represents the gap between positions among Shiites in Lebanon and among Shiites outside Lebanon. Thus, while the Iraqi Shiite opposition, represented mainly by the Supreme Council for the Islamic Revolution in Iraq (an organization based in Tehran), wants to bring down Saddam's regime and enjoys Iran's support, Hezbollah comes along as a Lebanese Shiite organization and offers an alternative.

Lebanese sources feel that if the war does happen and it turns out that the Shiites in Iraq assume positions of control and power, Iraqi's important Shiite center is liable to eclipse the Shiite center in Iran. Then the years-long struggle between the group's religious centers, one in Qum in Iran and the other in Najaf in Iraq, is liable to develop to the point of threatening the position of Ali Khamenei, Iran's spiritual leader.

"In the meantime, however, these are visions and dreams that filter through to us on the fringes of the struggle with Iraq," says a Lebanese source close to what is happening among the Shiites in Lebanon. The main issue is the military political move and the effect of the war on the state and not on the ethnic group.

"We live in a double state," explains a Lebanese journalist in an e-mail. "On the one hand we present ourselves as a secure state, with evidence of this being the throngs of tourists who come here, while on the other hand we live in fear that someone to the south, Hezbollah or Israel, will suddenly go crazy and start a war. That would be a tremendous disaster for the country, which is starting to get on the right track economically."

The financial report of one of the main banks in Lebanon, the Audi bank, predicts Lebanon will profit in the short term from a war in Iraq, and that many investments will flow to Lebanon because it can assure them a quiet destination until things calm down. The report points out, for example, that after the terror attacks in New York some $800 million in investments flowed to Lebanon, funds that came from Arab investors who pulled their money out of the U.S.

Lebanese economists are expecting a similar situation if a war erupts soon. A Lebanese banker said that during a recent visit to the Gulf states, many Saudi and Kuwaiti investors asked him about the conditions and options for investing in Lebanon.

Kuwait this week presented itself as the safest place in the Middle East and claimed there was no chance that Iraqi forces would invade Kuwaiti territory during the war. This week, however, Kuwaiti banking sources reported that clients had already begun withdrawing their savings and securities and were transferring deposits abroad, with one of the main destinations being Lebanese banks.

The interest on savings in Lebanon has dropped to about 4 percent per year and the government is now charging a 5-percent tax on interest income, but Lebanese economists are apparently not worried that this will halt the flow of investments. After all, how many investment alternatives are left in this war-threatened region?

"The problems will start if and when Iraq is liberated," says the Lebanese journalist. "Then there will be a run on Baghdad and everyone will want to grab a chunk of the economic boom. This is a good reason for Lebanon not to want a war in Iraq. It is better for the investments to stay here."