Syrian Reversal in the Lebanon

Lebanon is now in the midst of an election campaign. The first stage of these elections took place in the mountainous regions and in north Lebanon on last Monday, August 28. The election campaign has been characterized by intrigues, shifting political alliances and much corruption. However, it reflected the true, gut-level Lebanon that preceded the civil war of 1975.

Lebanon has been liberated, more or less, from the chains of Syria. In the Christian and Sunni Moslem regions of the north, 33 of the 63 elected representatives - out of a total of 128 - preached openly for the abrogation or the weakening of the Syrian foothold in Lebanon.

The following political leaders, who are opposed to the Syrian presence in Lebanon and have openly preached against it, have now achieved significant gains in the elections:

- the Christian Amin Jumayel, the former president, who returned to Lebanon only a month ago with Syrian consent.

- the Druze Walid Jumblatt, whose father was murdered by the Syrians

- the Sunni Moslem Rafik Hariri, the previous Prime Minister, who acted to increase the freedom of action of Lebanon towards the Syrians and was therefore removed from office.

These results came about despite the pressures from Syrian intelligence officers and from the Syrian President himself, Bashar el-Assad. They wanted to moderate the criticism and align the critics with those who support the politicians who are identified as pro-Syrian, such as the current Prime Minister, Salim al-Hoss or the Minister of the Interior,

Michel al-Mor. For this purpose, the Syrian President even conducted personal talks at the beginning of the week with most of the political leaders in Lebanon.

The next stages in the elections will be on next Monday, September 4th and then next week on September 11th. Their results will be different, because most of the voters will come from population centers of the Shi'ites. The trend will then be clear and unequivocal, because they support the Amal and the Hizbollah organizations. In those regions, the major issue is the rehabilitation of South Lebanon. The various candidates compete in promises to act for the reconstruction of the South. Even if one cannot take these promises too seriously, it is clear that the armed struggle against Israel is now eliminated from the agenda in favor of a future of economic restoration.

The chances for continued stability along the Israel-Lebanon border also improve, to the extent that Lebanon is less subjected to foreign interests and more reflects the wishes of its citizens. However, more than anything else, the election campaign in Lebanon reflects a strategic choice of the young Syrian President, Bashar el-Assad, He is taking consistent steps towards the liberalization of Syria. He has given top priority to the rehabilitation and economic development of his country and its integration into the international community.

It seems that the Syrian President understands that political represssion and the extreme limitation of the freedom of expression signify a continuation of the isolation of Syria from the Western world of normal nations. It also means the continuation of economic stagnation and the preservation of the power of the security and military apparatus. This apparatus is still controlled to a large extent by aging, conservative officers of the Alawi minority in Syria. These officers are liable in the future to limit the freedom of action of Bashar el-Assad himself, as

President.

It is absolutely clear that the President could have prevented the return of Amin Jemayel to Syria, in order to intimidate all the opponents of Syria in Lebanon and shut them up, just as his father did to the same degree. Yet the price, in terms of political status, in the Arab world as well as in the Western world, would be too high for someone who is dreaming of a Syria that is open, developing, modern and progressive.

Just one small anecdote. Even in his private life, the unmarried Syrian President is trying to free himself from the circle of the corrupt Alawite family that closely surrounds him. These people are conservative and narrow-minded. Not by accident do names pop up in the media of candidates for the First Lady of Syria. They are all middle class, Sunni Moslems, most of whom went into exile from their native land during the reign of Bashar's father, Hafez el-Assad. They speak English and two of the three candidates live in London, where they have a status and a career in their own right. They can constitute a bridge to the Sunni majority and a role model for the modern Syrian woman, according to the vision of Bashar el-Assad. Let us wish him success.